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Trade Wars & Recessions: A CEOs Survival Guide

Writer: Avy-Loren CohenAvy-Loren Cohen


Intro

The rumours have grown louder on both sides of the border. Economic indicators are flashing caution signs, and many experts predict a recession and in some cases, “stagflationis on the horizon. While the exact timing and severity remain uncertain, one thing is clear: startups and entrepreneurs in both Canada and the US need to prepare now to weather the potential storm. Ignoring the warning signs could be fatal. This article outlines key areas to focus on to survive and thrive during an economic downturn.


Understanding the Landscape: Similarities and Differences

While both economies are intertwined, there are nuances to consider. Canada, with its strong ties to commodity markets, might experience different impacts than the more tech-driven US economy. Interest rate hikes, inflation, and supply chain disruptions are impacting both countries, but the specific effects on your business will depend on your industry, target market, and funding sources. Staying informed about economic developments in both countries is crucial.


Key Strategies for Recession-Proofing Your Startup:

1- Cash is King (and Queen): First things first: Extend your runway. Here’s what that looks like:

  • Slash Costs, Extend Runway: It’s time to tighten the belt. Go through your expenses with a fine-tooth comb. Are there subscriptions you can ditch? Can you get better deals with your vendors? Non-essential hiring can wait. Every dollar counts — it stretches your runway and gives you breathing room. Focus on what your business needs to survive and thrive, not just what it wants.


  • Boost Revenue, Fast: A fast revenue boost requires a strategic approach. Explore new avenues, focusing on quick wins like targeted discounts and promotions. Expanding your reach to new customer segments, even if they’re slightly less profitable initially, can be a smart move for building a stronger foundation.


  • Funding in a Downturn: Be Prepared: Navigating the funding landscape during a recession requires a strategic approach. Venture capital becomes much harder to secure, so if you’re actively fundraising, it’s time to ramp up your efforts. Investors are laser-focused on profitability, so demonstrating a clear path to it, along with a lean operating model, is crucial. Don’t overlook alternative funding sources: government grants and small business loans can be a lifeline. And remember, smart startups are


2- Refine Your Value Proposition: In a downturn (which is what the tariffs may create), customers become more discerning. Ensure your product or service addresses a critical need and offers clear value for money. Focus on demonstrating ROI and solving real problems for your target audience. Be prepared to adapt your offerings to meet changing market demands as was seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.


3- Focus on Customer Retention: Acquiring new customers is more challenging (and expensive) during a recession. Prioritize nurturing existing customer relationships. Implement strategies to increase customer loyalty and reduce churn. Happy customers are more likely to stick with you through tough times.


4- Lean Operations are Essential: Optimize your processes and eliminate inefficiencies. Streamline your operations to reduce costs and improve productivity. Embrace automation where possible to free up your team to focus on strategic initiatives.


5- Be Agile and Adaptable: The economic landscape can shift quickly. Be prepared to pivot your strategy if necessary. Monitor market trends closely and be willing to adapt to changing conditions. Agility is key to surviving and even thriving in a recession.


6- Communicate Transparently: Keep your team, investors, and customers informed about your plans and progress. Transparency builds trust and can help you navigate challenging times together. Be honest about the challenges you face, but also highlight your strengths and your plan for moving forward.


7- Don’t Panic: Don’t freak out. Recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle. Sure, they’re tough, but they also create opportunities. Smart companies that are prepared and can adapt quickly often come out stronger. Stay calm, focused, and proactive. We helped all our clients navigate the pandemic successfully, using agile strategies to not just survive but grow. If you’re feeling unsure about navigating a potential recession, consider working with a strategic business consultant. We can help you create a roadmap for success.


Recession Timing: Stop Guessing, Start Preparing

Forget trying to time the market. Nobody can predict a recession’s exact arrival. Smart startups focus on being ready, not when. Implement our strategies now to weather any economic downturn.


Recession Opportunities: Turning Lemons into Lemonade

A recession can be scary, but savvy startups see a silver lining. Weaker competitors falter, creating opportunities for agile businesses to grab market share. Top talent becomes available. And a recession forces efficiency and focus — crucial for long-term growth.


Act Now, Thrive Later

Canadian and US startups: Don’t just survive a recession; use it as a springboard for future success. Proactive planning is essential. Don’t procrastinate. Start preparing today.


Conclusion:

Recession-Proofing Your Startup: A Strategic Imperative

A potential recession isn’t just a threat; it’s a catalyst. Logically, the signs demand action. Strategically, preparation is key: bolster cash reserves, streamline operations, and laser-focus on core value. From a business perspective, this means cutting costs, boosting revenue, and prioritizing customer retention. Philosophically, a downturn is a crucible. It forces introspection, refinement, and ultimately, stronger emergence. For US companies, this means maximizing domestic opportunities while staying globally connected. For Canadian companies, it’s a critical reminder of the importance of diversification. Serving the US market remains vital, but seizing international opportunities, particularly with the current exchange rate, is paramount. Smart businesses will not only survive but thrive. This period of potential contraction can become a springboard for future growth. Embrace a proactive, adaptable mindset. Recession-proofing isn’t just about weathering the storm; it’s about positioning your startup for long-term success in a constantly evolving world.



 

Hello, I am Avy-Loren, specializing in strategic business consulting and Executive Advisory services catering to companies worldwide across diverse industries. My expertise lies in collaborating with startups, founders, and public company CEOs, guiding them toward achieving their personal and professional aspirations with a sense of respect and pride. Throughout the past decade, I have actively co-founded three companies and currently serve as a co-founder and COO/CSO of a tech venture. Additionally, I have made investments in early-stage startups as an Angel investor, acted as a consultant and advisor for a prominent US-based VC firm, and mentored countless individuals and startups. I also encourage you to follow me on Medium and share this article with anyone you believe would benefit from its valuable insights. Together, we can overcome obstacles and drive success in the ever-evolving business landscape.


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